Last week's 11 percent rise notwithstanding, the wasteland that Wall Street has become provides slim pickings for investors seeking remuneration for their pain and suffering.
Many are seeking the shelter of dividends, the portion of earnings companies pay out to their shareholders quarterly. As stock prices have fallen, yields -- the annual per-share dividend divided by the price an investor has to pay for a share of the stock -- have risen. The yield on the Dow Jones industrial average currently stands at 3.5 percent while the Standard & Poor's 500 hovers at 3 percent. That compares with the 1.5 percent to 2 percent payout the market indexes provided in recent years. It also compares favorably with the 3 percent the average six-month certificate of deposit pays according to Bankrate.com.
While some believe dividend yields will retreat to previous levels once Wall Street recuperates, Judith Saryan, who manages Eaton Vance's Dividend Income Fund [Ticker: EDIAX] isn't one of them.
"In my mind, dividends are going to play a much greater role in the minds of investors and in the minds of companies than they have in the last 15 years," Ms. Saryan says. "We could see another 10 or 15 years of dividends being the most significant return factor or a very big return factor."
That's the role dividends used to play. Depending on the time period, dividends provided 40 percent to 70 percent of the return investors received from the 1940s through the 1980s, according to Ms. Saryan.
James J. Holtzman with Legend Financial Advisors in McCandless doubts yields will return to those levels, but understands their current appeal to some investors.
"Everybody's looking to get at least something out of anything right now," he says.
But dividend chasers should proceed with caution. A high-yielding stock could be a bargain or a trap, depending on the company's ability to maintain its dividend in troubled times, when earnings typically fall and companies are more parsimonious with their cash.
"People really need to do some analytics or investigation as to why the yield looks the way it looks," say Fran Kinniry of Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group. "Sometimes a very high dividend yield can be a sign of stress."
S&P has documented the stress dividend-paying companies are under. The firm says about 7,000 companies it tracks reduced their dividends by $22.5 billion in the third quarter. Financial companies accounted for about 93 percent of that amount and represented about two-thirds of the 138 companies that trimmed their payouts, according to S&P.
"It was the worst September for dividends since we started keeping dividend records in 1956," says S&P's Howard Silverblatt.
While Bankrate.com says you'll get less than 4 percent on the average five-year CD, several regional stocks offer dividend yields of 6 percent or more. But how do investors determine how secure those payouts are?
The first thing they should look at is the payout ratio: the percentage of per-share earnings a company pays out in dividends. Ms. Saryan says the average payout ratio, which was at an historic low of about 30 percent a year, has risen to about 40 percent. The Eaton Vance fund manager says two other indicators of a company's ability to sustain its dividend are the cash it generates and the cash on its balance sheet.
Comparing two regional stocks that are comparably priced and offer the same dividend illustrates the need to do your homework.
At Friday's close of $11.50, Alcoa's [AA] 17-cent quarterly dividend yields just shy of 6 percent. The aluminum producer generated earnings of $1.36 per diluted share over the first three quarters, giving it a payout ratio of 38 percent.
First Commonwealth Financial [FCF] sports a 6.2 percent yield, based on its quarterly dividend of 17 cents and Friday's closing price of $11.03. While the Indiana, Pa., bank paid out the same 51 cents per share in dividends over the first nine months as Alcoa did, it only generated 47 cents per share of earnings to cover those payments. So its payout ratio was 109 percent.
"A dividend payout ratio over 100 percent reduces our capital and is not sustainable over the long term," First Commonwealth cautioned investors last week in a securities filing detailing a $100 million stock offering.
Analysts forecast First Commonwealth will earn about 76 cents per share next year, which would provide more coverage for its dividend. But given the uncertain economic outlook, "you have to think twice about projecting what future earnings will be" for any company, Mr. Holtzman says.
"Anything in the financial sector you have to be concerned about now for obvious reasons," he says.
Federated Investors [FII] tried to calm jittery investors in August by paying out a special, one-time dividend of $2.76 per share. The payout, which amounted to $275 million, was in addition to its regular quarterly dividend of 24 cents.
The one-time dividend relieved some of Federated shareholders' pain, but hasn't provided much support for its stock. Since the one-time payout was announced Aug. 19, Federated shares have fallen 24 percent, closing Friday at $24.20.
Do you need to be told to be careful out there?